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Our special Finals Simulator say only five teams can make the finals - Firebirds, Mystics, WBOP Magic, Swifts and the Vixens. So, which team will miss out on the top four?

With only three rounds to go, there are five teams fighting it out for four positions in the semi finals. With the Queensland Firebirds wrapping up top spot it now becomes a shoot-out between two Australian teams and two New Zealand teams. So who will remain to challenge the undefeated Firebirds?

Based on current ladder position, goals for, goals against and history of home and away wins, Champion Data, the ANZ Championship official statisticians, have simulated 10,000 games to predict the make-up of the semi finals, and which unfortunate team will just miss out this year. In order of the current ladder position after Round 9, the following is how Champion Data think the race to the finals will transpire.

Obviously there is no issue with the Firebirds, who are safely in the top spot. So our focus then moves onto the remaining four teams' chances, and according to the simulator, they are all in with a good shot. The Northern Mystics have a 77.3% chance of making the semi finals, both Waikato/Bay of Plenty and the NSW Swifts have a 76.1% chance, and the Melbourne Vixens sit on a 73% chance. The percentage of each team is going to be vital, so not only must these teams win their remaining games but the margin of their victories is going to hold an extra significant importance.

1.Queensland Firebirds

The Queensland Firebirds have been the benchmark all season and nothing indicates that this will change. Only one of their remaining games is on the road, against the bottom of the table Canterbury Tactix. At this point in time, they are also topping the number of goals scored with 576 and number of rebounds with 84, whilst ranking second for deflections with 167 and third for intercepts with 68. However one thing that surely must be in the back of the Firebirds' minds is what happened to the NSW Swifts last season. The Swifts went through the home and away season undefeated, but then went on to lose both their semi final and preliminary final appearances at home to fall out of the running in straight sets.

2.Northern Mystics

The Northern Mystics, who in Round 9 became only the second New Zealand team to ever win on Australian soil with a hard fought 2 goal victory over the West Coast Fever in Perth, are delicately positioned for a finals tilt. They have two tough away games, including a vital trip to Sydney to face the NSW Swifts, a team they are desperately fighting against for ladder position. They should beat the Tactix in Round 11 which sees them face the Southern Steel in the last round in Invercargill to most probably secure a finals berth. Statistically they can do it, as they feature heavily as one of the better performed teams in the competition. They have scored the second most number of goals with 529, have secured the equal most number of intercepts with 72 alongside the Melbourne Vixens, as well as recording the most number of deflections with 170 and gains with 162.

3.Melbourne Vixens

The Melbourne Vixens face the near impossible task of beating the Firebirds in Brisbane next game, but they then round out the season with three quite winnable matches. After a trip across the Nullarbor to face the Fever, the Vixens then play two games at home, the only team currently in the top five to finish with this luxury. Their Round 12 clash against the NSW Swifts might as well be part of the finals series as that's how important it will be. The winner most probably will fight another day, while the loser will have to rely on other results to let them play finals Netball in May. The Vixens have scored only 483 goals this season, ranked a lowly sixth in the entire competition, but they do rank highly for forcing opposition turnovers, ranking equal first in the competition for intercepts with 72, and fourth in the competition for deflections, registering 163, which is only seven behind the league leader.

4.NSW Swifts

The NSW Swifts quite possibly have the toughest run into the finals out of the other teams mentioned in this article. An away trip against the reigning Premiers, the Adelaide Thunderbirds, is always a tough ask. This is then followed by a home game against the Northern Mystics, who are coming off their first win on Australian soil so confidence will no doubt be high. An away trip across to Dunedin is followed by the blockbuster against the Vixens in Melbourne. One thing for certain, however, is that the Swifts will be battle-hardened come finals time. The Swifts have only scored 486 goals this season, which ranks them fifth in the competition, a position they have regularly sat in this season when it comes to match statistics. Two particular statistics that do rank well in, however, are turnovers and penalties conceded. The Swifts are competition leaders for turnover rate, recording only 138, and they have given away only 436 penalties this season, 20 in front of their nearest rival, the WBOP Magic.

5.Waikato/BOP Magic

To finish second, the position we predict the Waikato/Bay of Plenty Magic are to snare, they must win all their remaining four games, something we think is quite achievable given their draw. All four remaining games are against teams that cannot feature in the finals series. They do however have two tough away trips, which include a trip to Invercargill this weekend followed by an Easter road trip to Adelaide to face the team that robbed them of glory last season. Out of the top five teams, the WBOP Magic has scored the least amount of goals with only 441, which ranks them eighth for the entire competition. They do however have the least amount of misses for the entire competition with 81, so once in the goal circle they generally make an impact on the score sheet. They also rank highly for turnovers with only 147, third for the competition, but are only nine behind competition leaders, the Swifts. They also ranked second in the competition for the least number of penalties conceded, with 456. One advantage that the WBOP Magic has over other teams is their significant finals experience. They have featured in every single finals campaign of the ANZ Championship, which is an achievement no other team can claim.

There you go Netball fans, this is what the computer and the statistics say about who should win and where they should finish at the end of the regular rounds. But as we all know, come this time of the year, form and ladder position can bite many a team and supporter. So can the Vixens or the Swifts claim their second title or will the Firebirds, Mystics or WBOP Magic make the breakthrough for their maiden title? Either way, it will be compulsory viewing over the next six weeks.

So who do you think will make the finals and ultimately become the 2011 ANZ Championship Champions?